Hydro generated electricity – how much “abundant” hydro does Canada really have?
The common belief is that Canada is a hydroelectric superpower; that we have huge generating capacity and export a great deal of it to the USA. The reality is that, yes, Canada does produce “a lot” of hydroelectric power but there is very little room left for expansion. Estimates are that we can produce maybe 10% to 15% more by damming the last remaining rivers of sufficient size. If we even have the stomach to crush the environment that much more.
Hydroelectricity can play a huge part in our transition to renewable energy or it can be relegated to the roll of a bit player in a failing society. Canadian hydro generates 383 billion kWh of output annually. But that is a somewhat unwieldy number.
More digestible is the figure of 26kWh per person per day. In perspective, this amount would power a Tesla 3 for over 160km or contribute 50% of the energy consumption for an average, all-electric and fairly efficient, Canadian house during the winter.
At the end of the renewable energy transition, where almost 100% or our energy consumption will be electric (many decades in the future) the average daily energy budget will likely be in the area of 150kWh **, a 55% drop from our current fossil fueled economy. This figure is achievable because an electrified society will be over 60% more efficient than one which burns things for energy.
For instance an EV is in the neighbourhood of 90% efficient whereas an internal combustion car might be 35% efficient because burning is an inherently inefficient process. Also, the 150kWh figure has built in the assumption that Canada, as well as all western nations, will have repatriated manufacturing.
Below are the gross hydroelectric production figures as well as the daily per capita budget breakdown for various levels of population.
|
Canadian Hydro Electricity Production
|
kilo Watt hour
|
|---|---|
|
Current annual Hydro Production |
383 billion kWh |
|
Current hydro generation - Daily |
1 billion kWh |
|
Daily Total energy budget per person |
150kWh |
|
Daily per capita kWh hydro production - Population 40 million |
26kWh |
|
Hydro Electricity as a percentage of Canadian current total per capita energy consumption (~340kWh) incl. all fossil and nuclear sources |
8% |
|
Percentage of Daily Energy budget in a 100% electrified society using 150kWh as the target (population 40 million) |
17% |
|
For a population of 15 million |
47% |
|
For a population of 100 million |
7% |
Hydroelectric power is the ideal energy source to use as the baseload for the highly variable renewables of wind and solar. It can react quickly to the peaks and dips of those two sources. So can natural gas plants but hydro has a much lower carbon footprint and is renewable whereas ng will eventually run out. Nuclear power plants do not react quickly, taking far longer to ramp up and ramp down, and they have other issues as well.
Hydro isn’t free but it is by far the lowest cost electricity and the most reliable. That said, even the hydro electric superstar Norway, can see droughts and hydro capacity reductions.
Our current population of 40 million uses an average of 26kWh per day of electricity, which is 8% of our total energy consumption from all sources.
In an extreme climate such as that of Canada, a baseload hydro capacity of 26kWh (17% of total) can go a long way to smoothing out the huge variability and seasonality of solar and wind production for a population of 40 million. Societal adjustments can potentially be effective and not too intrusive.
If, after several centuries of population decline we stabilize at 15 million, hydro production can supply 47% of energy demand yielding an extremely resilient and stable energy supply. At 28 million, which is where our population would currently be without 40 years of mass immigration, the hydro share would be a still-impressive 24%.
However, if we continue to yield to the growth lobby and drive our population over 100 million through mass immigration, hydro will supply only 7% of our energy demand. That is nowhere near the level needed to assure anything remotely resembling stable energy supplies.
Bottom line: the limit of the Canadian hydroelectric resource is fairly well fixed. How stable our energy supply is and how stable our society can be depends on how effective we are in freeing public policy from the grip of the growth lobby. Resources count and resources per person is a critical determinant of social health and our ability to progress.
Sustainability isn’t possible with endless growth and the more we do grow, the more expensive and difficult it will be to achieve sustainability.
** this figure assumes the repatriation of manufacturing which boost energy consumption.