We don’t really need graphs anymore do we?
Earth’s climate is dynamic and constantly changing but for the past 12,000 years it has been unusually stable allowing humanity to thrive in relatively ideal conditions. However, our activities have tipped the chemistry of our atmosphere into a mode of higher heat retention and our infrastructure, economic system, food supply and social stability are now under direct threat.
The latest studies nail the scientific lid shut on the effect human activity is having on our climate. Will comprehensive scientific proof finally be enough to convince governments to overcome deep resistance by vested interests and act? Or is a brief scan of the news now sufficient?
Below is a summary of Art Berman’s analysis of the latest study (A 485-million-year history of Earth’s surface temperature – Emily J. Judd) which decisively ends any legitimate doubt about human caused carbon emissions driving catastrophic climate change.
But at this stage, with all of the worldwide ground-level evidence appearing on every media channel, are we finally at the point where we can dispense with graphs and analysis and just get moving on effective action?
Worldwide Historic Extreme Weather
Hurricane Helene – what jurisdiction on this planet would be ready for 10 to 30 inches of rain over 24 to 48 hours? Ditto the follow-up Milton with its record tornado outbreak. These hurricanes are one-two decapitalization punches to the tune of $300 billion.
- There is now 13% more water in the atmosphere than there was 80 years ago (8% increase per degree C of warming)
- When we hit 3C of warming will we be ready for a 25% increase producing 20” to 60” of rain events?
- Eastern Europe crop losses huge due to drought and high temperatures
- French wineries suffering 80% losses due to cold
- Extreme heat warnings in US Southwest in October
- Record floods in Africa and other parts of the world
Spectacular storms and floods are but one facet of the overall impact of climate change. Forest fires, drought, reduced crop yields and increased prices, species loss and displacement all add their cracks to the foundation of sophisticated human societies.
The Numbers Don’t Lie: Why Climate Denial Is No Longer Possible
October 1, 2024 | Art Berman
https://www.artberman.com/blog/the-numbers-dont-lie-why-climate-denial-is-no-longer-possible/
The Washington Post recently featured new research by Emily Judd and her team, reaffirming what scientists have long understood: CO2 and temperature are closely linked. What’s new is that this study extends that relationship nearly 500 million years into Earth’s history, showing that both CO2 and temperatures were much higher in the distant past.
CO2 becomes a threat to human survival at concentrations above roughly 400 parts per million (ppm). CO2 levels didn’t fall below 400 ppm until around 8 million years ago. The instinctive but incorrect takeaway from this data might be to assume life thrived at these higher concentrations.
The reality is that it was the natural decline in CO2 levels that enabled the conditions for human life to emerge. Nature’s gradual reduction of CO2 wasn’t just a geological footnote—it was a prerequisite for our existence.
Figure 2 lays out CO2 and temperature trends, showing the fall in CO2 and temperature sparked a surge in biodiversity starting around 90 million years ago.
The takeaway here is obvious, even without factoring in climate change—lower CO2 levels were part of the special conditions that led to this explosion of life. The current ecosystem, with its complexity and variety, didn’t happen by accident. It required specific circumstances, and lower CO2 was fundamental to that process.
Figure 2. Falling CO2 and temperature levels led to an explosion of biodiversity on Earth beginning about 90 million years ago. PETM: Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum; MMCT: Middle Miocene Climate Transition; Order-Sil: Ordovician-Silurian extinction even; L Dev: lower Devonian extinction event; Perm Trias: Permian-Triassic extinction event; KT: Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event; EO: end Oligocene extinction event. Source: Judd et al (2024) and Labyrinth Consulting Services. Inc.
“Carbon dioxide is really that master dial. That’s an important message…in terms of understanding why emissions from fossil fuels are a problem today.”
Is Climate Science Settled or Still Uncertain?
The greenhouse effect has been understood for over a century. Joseph Fourier outlined it in 1824, and by the late 19th century, Svante Arrhenius calculated the role of CO2 in warming the planet.
The evidence is clear: temperature records, ice core data, and satellite measurements all confirm Earth is warming. The link between rising CO2 and higher temperatures is well-documented, and there’s broad consensus that fossil fuel burning is driving this.
What’s uncertain isn’t the past or present but the future trajectory. Climate systems are complex, and predicting specifics—like regional weather patterns or critical temperature thresholds—is harder. That’s true for any modeling of the future, not just climate.
Doesn’t a Warmer Planet and More CO2 Really Lead to Better Crop Yields?
Rahmstorf points out that the broader effects of climate change—shifting climate zones, extreme weather, and water shortages—will likely outweigh any localized benefits from higher CO2 or longer growing seasons.
Yes, some regions may see a longer growing season, but in tropical and subtropical zones, the picture isn’t so bright. More extreme heat, droughts, and unpredictable rainfall could cut into agricultural productivity.
Rising temperatures bring more severe weather: heatwaves, storms, and floods that can devastate crops and disrupt food production. And it’s not just about CO2. Water is essential for farming, and warmer temperatures mean greater water stress in many areas. Without enough water, any supposed benefit from more CO2 vanishes.
CO2 can indeed boost plant growth—it’s called the CO2 fertilization effect—but this is limited by other factors like water, nutrients, and suitable temperatures. Once those limits are hit, more CO2 won’t keep increasing yields, especially under tougher climate conditions.
Aren’t Volcanoes and Solar Activity Really Driving Climate Change More Than CO2?
No. Volcanoes, solar activity, and orbital shifts do play a role in Earth’s climate, but they don’t explain the rapid warming we’ve seen in recent decades. The evidence overwhelmingly points to increased greenhouse gases—especially CO2—as the main cause of today’s climate change.
Volcanoes do release CO2, but their contribution is minor compared to human activities. Humans emit about 100 times more CO2 than volcanoes. Plus, volcanic eruptions often cool the planet short-term by releasing particles that reflect sunlight away from Earth.
Solar activity also affects climate, but it hasn’t increased in the past 70 years. In fact, it’s slightly decreased, which would actually promote cooling, not warming. The current warming trend can’t be blamed on the sun.
On top of that, Earth’s energy balance, measured by satellites and ground stations, shows that more heat is being trapped, and it’s this excess heat that’s causing the warming trend we’re experiencing today. The link to fossil fuels isn’t speculative—it’s measured.
Doesn’t the Medieval Warm Period Disprove Fossil Fuel-Driven Climate Change?
First, the MWP was modest, regional, not global, mostly affecting Europe and parts of North America, while other areas cooled. Today’s warming is global.
What Are the Worst Effects of Climate Change Likely to Be?
Extreme weather will become the new normal, with more frequent and intense heatwaves leading to higher death tolls and widespread health issues. Droughts will hit harder, straining water supplies, agriculture, and fueling wildfires. At the same time, heavier rainfall and flooding will wreck homes, infrastructure, and farmland.
Sea levels will continue to rise, eroding coastlines, flooding low-lying areas permanently, and making storm surges even more destructive. Coastal communities and ecosystems will face enormous risks, displacing millions. Oceans will become more acidic, endangering marine life like shellfish and coral, while warmer waters create deoxygenated “dead zones” where nothing can survive.
Biodiversity will suffer as species struggle to adapt or move, leading to extinctions and ecosystem imbalances. Coral reefs will bleach and collapse, while shifting habitats disrupt the natural order.
Agriculture will take a hit as unpredictable weather reduces crop yields, and pests and diseases expand their reach in warmer climates. Food security will be at risk.
The Science Is Settled
Anyone willing to look at the data objectively can see the crisis we’re in. This isn’t new science. CO2’s role in warming has been known since the 1820s with Fourier, and Arrhenius laid out the details in the 1890s. What’s unsettled is not the science but the refusal of some to accept it.
Yes, there are always dissenters when scientific paradigms shift. It was the same with plate tectonics until those voices faded away. Dissent is fine, but in climate science, it’s a rounding error in the face of overwhelming evidence. This isn’t about opinion—it’s about data. The numbers don’t lie.
Read the full article here:
https://www.artberman.com/blog/the-numbers-dont-lie-why-climate-denial-is-no-longer-possible/
The discussion must now be about effective counter measures and how to stop exacerbating what is absolutely clearly a huge threat to our society and species.
An international panel contributed to the study below which outlines where humanity stands and where we are headed.
The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth
BioScience, biae087, https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae087
Published: 08 October 2024
We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis. For many years, scientists, including a group of more than 15,000, have sounded the alarm about the impending dangers of climate change driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem change (Ripple et al. 2020). For half a century, global warming has been correctly predicted even before it was observed—and not only by independent academic scientists but also by fossil fuel companies (Supran et al. 2023). Despite these warnings, we are still moving in the wrong direction; fossil fuel emissions have increased to an all-time high, the 3 hottest days ever occurred in July of 2024 (Guterres 2024), and current policies have us on track for approximately 2.7 degrees Celsius (°C) peak warming by 2100 (UNEP 2023). Tragically, we are failing to avoid serious impacts, and we can now only hope to limit the extent of the damage. We are witnessing the grim reality of the forecasts as climate impacts escalate, bringing forth scenes of unprecedented disasters around the world and human and nonhuman suffering. We find ourselves amid an abrupt climate upheaval, a dire situation never before encountered in the annals of human existence. We have now brought the planet into climatic conditions never witnessed by us or our prehistoric relatives within our genus.
Read the full paper here:Â https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biae087
We should have set a goal of sustainability and adopted a coherent strategy of population, economic and environmental balance to get us there 50 years ago.
We didn’t.
Now we need to make up that lost ground in the next several decades all the while beating back the increasing impacts of a less favourable climate.
Mother Nature speaks and listens in real biophysical metrics, not on our commercial market terms.