The Meta Crisis Arrives Early
Although most people are quite clear on the danger various biophysical and social crises pose, the impacts and their timing have seemed hard to predict.
William Rees’ “The Human Ecology of Overshoot: Why a Major ‘Population Correction’ Is Inevitable” ** has helped us prepare to understand our future. The crisis of overshoot is unavoidable but is unravelling slowly and, to some, subtly.
But no longer. Climate change, resource depletion, inequality and corruption may be denied away by the powers that be but no one is denying that Trump has landed. Here and now, in crystal clear, 3d, uncut and unedited, we have a genuine structural crisis on our hands and the way it is being handled by our governments is illuminating.
Asteroid Trump has Entered the Atmosphere: Brace for Impact
As we try to absorb our predicament, Donald Trump has kicked us all out of bed and demanded that change be immediate and on his terms. Trump is a disruptor. Some of his platform, like tariffs, holds promise for correcting the damage globalization and free trade did to western countries.
Unfortunately, it appears a wide-ranging strategy relying on an internationally agreed upon tariff regime to broaden all economies was never Trump’s plan. Rather, he seems to be focused on a slap-dash array of deals to make it look as though progress is being made. At least for America.
And all this is happening, not in 3, 10 or 40 years, but as of several weeks ago. Trump may be a force to be reckoned with but he isn’t Mother Nature. He can be worked around and possibly even worked with on some levels. In any case, his agenda must be dealt with.
The Lost Generation of Politicians
As political commentator and philosopher Vlad Vexler just stated, “Our political elite are lost and finding things unintelligible – they don’t get what is going on.” “We are transitioning from one historical moment to another and they are lost.” “And that is alarming because they can’t win on your behalf unless they stop feeling lost.”
If only they really were trying to win on our behalf, Vlad. However if they actually were, they’ve been lost to the finance cult for 40 years.
Mainstream Western politicians are simply not able to react strongly in a clear and viable direction because they don’t understand the ground on which they stand and now that ground is now starting to
move. Even more mass immigration, debt, consumption and outsourcing will not solve the problems they have created but these are the only tools in the drawer for mainstream, growth-fixated politicians.
Canada, the highest growth Western nation, enters this transformative process totally unprepared. The good ship Canuck sits before this gale with all sails up and the rudder out of the water. This befits a captain and crew with no particular destination in mind or having even a working knowledge of how a ship actually operates.
Tariffs? Broad-based economy? Food, energy, manufacturing resilience? High quality jobs? Affordable housing? Productivity? Quality of life? Instead of instant recognition by Canadian politicians, these threats to growth draw bewilderment and bemusement. But politicians have to react now and they know it.
“Let’s retaliate and punish the Americans!” “Let’s send troops to the border!” Don’t think; retaliate!
The sputtering business-as-usual model of growth and open borders is simply not going to make it any further down the road. But politicians desperately want to save what exists now rather than transitioning to a national model based on well-being, resilience and sustainability because they have absolutely no frames of reference or the prior consideration necessary for any structural realignment.
Rule of the Jumble
So with no focus other than “tariffs are a threat and will do real short term damage”, politicians and the media are attacking tariffs and the populist discontent driving them. We’ve dealt with the best way forward in a tariffed world here. But the long-term issue is to recognize how badly prepared we are for the existential threats, which while not as immediate as Trumpian economics, are now clearly in sight.
Trump has challenged the legitimacy of virtually every government and institution in the western world, save, perhaps tellingly, the finance industry at whose feet lies a substantial portion of our problems.
How well can our governments make structural changes in the middle of a chaotic situation? How do we avoid a destructive melee of retaliatory measures?
There are much greater challenges coming and while Trump might be a feral raccoon leaving economic and foreign policies permanently altered, his influence will diminish as the inadequacies of his self-serving solutions become apparent. But behind the fog of Trump, Mother Nature remains as a grizzly who won’t take no for an answer.
We Don’t Have to Wait to See the Future
Canada’s lack of preparedness is now fully on display. The crisis which made this clear came in the form of Donald Trump but could just have easily been any one of the many biophysical and financial black swans on the horizon.
We might even thank Donnie for the wake-up call later. Or maybe that is a pill too bitter to force down most gullets.
If a cohesive strategy and a rational re-structuring of Canada’s goals falls out of Trumps disruption, then he has indeed done Canada and the world a service. But if we try to continue sliding by with a growth-solves-all-problems mentality, we will sink even deeper into a muddle than during the pre-Trump era.
If Change is Unavoidable, Make Sure it is Change for the Better
Trump is effectively going to try to deal with American economic issues the same way he is trying to stop the war in Ukraine: by issuing edicts. This strategy may alter the landscape although it is unlikely to deliver long-term success. But make no mistake; all of the cards are now up in the air.
Canada should not be simply reacting to Trump’s edicts or threats, we should realize that the great gears of world events have started to turn. We need to adopt a strategy which will make us better able to handle all disruption, not just the Trump disruption.
Not coincidentally the structure that best handles this crisis will also best handle the biophysical crises of climate change and resource depletion.
The direction of our future movement can’t be along the rut of continued growth. It has to be over the untrodden ground of progress. Social well-being, fiscal balance, a broad economic base, quality of life and food and energy resilience – same planet, different world for policymakers.
Jingoistic Nationalism or Real Leadership
It is great to hear the cries of patriotism and love of country from Canadian politicians and media righteously indignant about Trump’s hamfisted tariffs and takeover threats. But where was their love of Canadians when hundreds of thousands of our best jobs were outsourced to cheap labour countries? When cheap labour was imported to undercut Canadian wages? When Canadians were thrown into debt trying to afford housing while banks and speculator and developer profits sucked trillions of dollars from the pockets of Canadians?
What of access to nature and actual love of the land and the people?
And where was their love of the land when millions of hectares of prime farmland were paved over to accommodate the mass immigration that made those politicians and their sponsors wealthy?
Does their professed love for this country stem from a genuine newfound appreciation of the value of Canadian culture and well-being or does it stem from the alarm that another gang wants to move into their territory and take over the action?
Real leadership speaks in goals and strategy, not in threats.