This is a very brief outline of how energy is power and, in the long run, political power can only come from energy.
The graph below adds time perspective to the American move to control Venezuelan oil. It is Step 1 in a strategy, (yes, Trump might actually have one) to extend the fossil fuel age for the United States beyond the lifespan its own oil can carry it.
Of course, a strong program of electrification with large investments in renewable energy and EVs would allow limited US oil reserves many more years of life. But Trump, for some reason, wants to pretend that fossil fuels can provide all of the energy needed to power the US into the 22nd century.
Any studies indicating this might be possible have yet to see the light of day.
Estimates of reserves and resource life spans vary greatly but there are several core metrics which are both signaling the same trend.
EROI
EROI (Energy Returned for Energy Invested), is a ratio which illustrates how much energy we have to expend to get more energy. In the early days of oil, this ratio was exploding as huge, rich and accessible oil fields were developed. In some areas, it was possible to see 100 barrels of oil produced with a one barrel of oil input. (EROI = 100:1)
Currently, the world EROI for oil has fallen 17:1 area. For the very low grade Canadian oil sands this is around 4:1 and the Venezuelan heavy oil is in the same area. Both regions have huge reserves of natural gas which make the development of these low grade plays viable.
Depletion Rates
Once the field begins to decline, conventional oil has a depletion rate of between 3% and 6% annually and so well production can stretch into many decades. For fracking, which is the source of most US production now, the depletion rate is 60% to 80% annually. This means that huge numbers of well have to be drilled continually.
Well drilling has become far more efficient in the past decade but the math of using a lot of resources to harvest oil from very small plays can’t be ignored. 11 years is not the end of American production but it might be the beginning of terminal decline.
Stomp Loudly and Brandish a Large Check Valve on Energy Supply
Taking over Venezuelan oil will give Trump major leverage to aggressively pursue his imperial ambitions.
- There are only 2 major sources of heavy oil which is very important for making diesel fuel and these are the oil sands and Venezuela. Diesel is cheaper to make but the worldwide price is now much higher than for regular gas due to the low volume of current Venezuelan exports.  Diesel is vital to the world transportation system. No diesel, no one (ok, few) eats. Remember the phrase “If you got it, a truck brought it.” Simple but true.
Trump would then have substantial control over a vital world resource and he would be able to feed the big refineries in the US Gulf coast with the heavy oil they were designed to process. At that point, discussion of rational market operation would become academic as he would undoubtedly use any power he has as a club to gain more power. - It is difficult to see how Cuba will not implode without Venezuelan oil. They are teetering now and with Trump’s foot on their throat, disintegration/regime change would likely occur.
- With a greatly increased flow of heavy oil from Venezuela, the US would have far less need for oil sands oil. This would give Trump (or whoever replaces him as ramping up production will take many years) a huge stick with which to beat Canada up and destabilize it. Hopefully, a team player succeeds Trump as president but we can’t assume that.
Bottom line: oil, and particularly Venezuelan oil, tremendously increases Trump’s options and power.
Not a good thing for this planet. On the other hand, seeing Trump’s control of this vital resource, any government with any foresight would accelerate renewable production to maintain their sovereign control over policy and escape the impacts of Trump edicts.
China will be leading this charge and with its technical leadership and production capacity many western nations may be drawn into its slipstream out of sheer lack of options.
The fundamental choices might boil down to Trump supplication and likely climate suicide or China and an unknown loss of technological and economic independence.
Bottom line for western governments who want to maintain policy independence: massively invest in renewables and electrification, reduce consumption and toss the growth mantra into the dustbin of history.