See how the Canadian population is projected to change by the year 2100 by comparing your chosen Fertility Rate & Immigration Rate scenario with the population now, what Canadians want (based on our Opinion Research Report) and what the immigration lobby wants.
- Select a Projection Scenario
See population data for any year up to 2100. - See the Impacts and Outcomes
Impacts in the table below are for the year 2100 only.
Metric
Current 2024
Chosen Scenario
Scenario C TFR 1.8 Imm 0 (What Canadians Want)
Scenario O TFR 1.8 Imm 1% (What the Immigration Lobby Wants)
Demographic
Total Population
The total number of people living in Canada.
41,288,599
34,890,225
107,046,203
Annual Population Change
The change in population numbers over the previous year.
0
-25,256
1,496,356
14 and Under
The percentage of population 14 and Under (High need dependents).
14.1%
14.9%
15.9%
Dependency Ratio 14 and Under + 65 and Over
The dependency ratios are the addition of the 14 and under population
plus the population over 64.
34.3%
43.7%
39.2%
Dependency Ratio 14 and Under + 70 and Over
TThe dependency ratios are the addition of the 14 and under population
plus the population over 70.
27.1%
37.3%
33.3%
Aging 65 and Over
The percentage of the population 65 and over.
20.2%
28.9%
23.3%
Aging Over 70
The percentage of the population over 70.
13.0%
22.4%
17.4%
Environmental
GHG Emissions tons/capita
Canada’s current level of around 17 tons per person is among the highest in the world. The reasons for this are the high emissions of oil sands and resource production, construction, the extreme climate even in the most southern populated areas, the great distances involved in transport and our high personal consumption levels.
17.4
8.1
8.1
Annual GHG Emissions Total mega tons
More people = higher total emissions
718
283
868
Cumulative GHG emissions megatons from 2024
How much we will have added to the world’s carbon emissions by the end of the century.
718
36,214
59,496
Farmland Loss Annually hectares
Current rates of farmland loss per capita are extrapolated into the future. Although this becomes difficult to believe as Ontario would see almost no farmland left, financial gain for elites has outweighed accountability throughout the past 50 years. Also, the immigration lobby is planning on spreading 10s of millions of people across the Prairies.
0
0
553,652
Farmland Loss Since 2024 hectares
Cumulative farmland loss since 2024. Use this for comparison against Canada’s remaining stock of Class 1 farmland of ~ 5 million hectares. If the impacts indicate a loss greater than 5 million, this is known as a “tension” indicating that real limits have been exceeded and something has to change.
0
130,726
24,330,313
Housing units constructed annually
Based on an occupancy of 2.7 people per residence
0
0
554,206
Housing units needed over 2024 (16,800,000)
Additional residential units required over and above the 16.8 million of 2024.
0
130,857
24,354,668
Social
Youth Happiness Index
As population ages, young people are much more highly valued, their incomes rise and their cost of housing declines which drives a happiness increase. Obviously in a high growth, cheap labour and inflated housing market, happiness continues to decline. Highest ranking is Finland at 7.7 and lowest is Afghanistan at 1.7
5.7
6.2
2.9
Bank Profits $ billion (bank tax) per person
How much money the money printing industry is extracting from each and every Canadian annually. This also indicates the scale of the profits collected by developers and speculators.
$4,360
$3,226
$7,947
Percentage of Income Spent on Mortgage
Capped at 75% and with a 30% floor, the percentage of income spent financing their homes. This, combined with bank profits also forms a proxy for equality levels.
48
42
75
Economic
Bank Profits $ billion (bank tax)
Indicates the structure of the economy. If finance industry revenues and profits are a dominant component of the commercial economy, it means that productive sectors are weak.
$180
$113
$851
Sustainability
Hydro Capacity per person per day kWh
This is a critical metric for the transition to renewable energy as hydro electric, from dams, has a very fast response time to work with the high variability of solar and wind to support a steady energy output. Canada has large hydro resources and with a steady or slowly declining population, there is a good chance we will achieve energy resilience. But with a large and growing population, the hydro resources will be diminished on a per capita basis and be far less able to react to changes in solar and wind output.
25.2
29.8
9.7
Background
A country’s population is determined by the number of births relative to deaths and immigration relative to emigration. Historically, most population growth was through natural increase (births over deaths). In the past half-century, this situation has changed dramatically as, in the Western world in particular, immigration made up an increasing share of population growth at the same time that birth rates were falling.
In Canada, immigration levels have been consistently high as a matter of government policy since 1990 and were further progressively raised under Justin Trudeau. At the same time, the total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen to about 1.3 children per woman (2024) with couples increasingly foregoing children due to low wages and unaffordable housing. In 2023, 97.6% of Canada’s population growth was due to immigration.
Fertility rates in the near future are unlikely to rise to previous historical levels and immigration is likely to continue to be the primary determinant of population size. In other words, it will be determined primarily by government policies, not the family planning choices of individuals. Government policy has for decades promoted the rapid population growth favoured by business interests, but this policy is facing rising opposition by working people feeling its negative impacts.
The population of Canada in 2100 could be well below the current population of 41 million or well over 100 million, depending on the total fertility rate and immigration levels. The interactive graphs on this page show the changes in the size of Canada’s population between now and 2100 under various combinations of TFR and immigration levels.
Overview
Population size and rate of growth have huge and multi-faceted impacts on social, environmental and economic outcomes. The larger the population, the lower are resources per capita and the greater the difficulty in achieving sustainability. A growing population sees lower per capita incomes as more savings are directed to the expansion of residences and infrastructure than are devoted to upgrading productive capacity.
Population growth can be profitized by means of housing inflation to produce immense profits for speculators and debt mongers as has happened in Canada, Australia, the USA and Britain where trillions of dollars are annually transferred (in effect, taxed) from low and middle income earners to the very wealthy.
So it is necessary to understand how the drivers of population impact real world outcomes in order to clarify the choices we have to make going forward in a world facing increasing resource, climate and social challenges.
Description of Population projections
Origin of data: StatCan. All population data is taken from projections commissioned by Canadians for a Sustainable Society and done by Statistics Canada using different values for Total Fertility Rate (expected average births per woman over her lifetime) and Immigration. In all scenarios, life expectancy rises gradually to the high 80s by 2100 as per the standard StatCan model. The results are total population by year for every year from 2025 to 2100 for each of the 16 projections.
The values of the variables range from very low TFRs (1.0) to the rate needed to maintain a stable population (2.1). Immigration rates are net and range from balanced – as many people going out as coming in (0) to the extremely high levels of 100,000 and the grow-forever rate of 1%. 1% means the rate of immigration is equal to 1% of the current population. 400,000 for our 2025 population of 40 million and over 1,000,000 in 2100 as the population tops 100 million and increasing forever from there.
Beyond the StatCan generated data, projections of various impacts are made from extrapolating current trends. These will change in terms of their values but the scale and their positive or negative nature is indicative of social, fiscal and environmental outcomes.
Future Additional Impacts
We would be happy to work with other groups to include a wide variety of impacts based on good data sets.Â
Please contact us if you have a metric you feel should be added.